In his statement on the passage of the budget reconciliation bill, Arkansas’s U.S. Senator John Boozman touts a seemingly impressive amount the “average” Arkansan would save if Congress passes the so-called One Big Beautiful Bill.
The problem, though, is that using the average value is meaningless in describing the situation facing Arkansans.
Take a simple example. Ten people buy instant lottery cards. One lucky player wins the maximum prize of $50,000. Two players win the minimum prize of $20. While the remaining seven players win nothing. The average prize, at just over $5,000, sounds attractive and worth the investment of a scratch-off card. But that average amount is a long way from the return on the investment for nine of the ten players. This is why median is a better measure than average (or mean) when you have skewed values or outliers (like one player winning the grand prize). Median is the middle value, and in this lottery example the median equals $0. As it would be for lottery games in the real world. And a much better description of the outcome most people would experience.
The same logic applies to household income. According to the U.S. Census, the average household income in Arkansas is $81,056. But the median household income is $58,700. The average is skewed by relatively fewer households making more money. In Arkansas, 12% of households make over $150,000 a year. However, 61% of households make less than $75,000, an amount below the average household income.
The Arkansas income tax code is complex. It is helpful to divide earners into quintiles — five equal divisions — in order to demonstrate how the tax cuts of the reconciliation bill are dispersed. In Arkansas, the top 20% of households by income will receive 64% of the tax cut, as determined by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy. The households with the lowest income will only receive 1% of the benefit of the tax cut.
Further detailed in the table below, those households making more than $668,900 will see an average tax savings of $48,410. While those making less than $24,600 will see an average tax savings of $60. That’s an 800x difference. Those making the median household income in Arkansas will see a tax savings of around $1,250, about half of the amount touted by Senator Boozman. And because this is the median household income, half of Arkansan households will see less than this $1,250.
Any claim that the reconciliation bill benefits all Arkansans is an exaggeration at best. At the basic level, it hurts working families: lower income earners in Arkansas will see very little benefit from tax savings as they are hurt by cuts to Medicaid, SNAP, and other basic needs programs. The Senate-approved reconciliation bill is below average policy. Our elected representatives must do better.
Impacts of Tax Provisions in the Senate Reconciliation Bill in 2026 in Arkansas
